Commenters are your cheapest audience

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💬 Commenters who never subscribed are your cheapest black friday audience

The signal

Two data points matter this week. Lebesgue's 2025 data, covering $22.6 million in Meta spend, put the median CPM at +13% versus September on November 10, +27% on November 20, and +84% on Black Friday. 

And on September 28, Meta stretched the messaging window for Click-to-Direct ads to up to seven days from the shopper's first message, per Spur's summary of the changelog. Organic DMs still get 24 hours.

The read

Pay for the conversation now, while it's cheap, and you get a week to turn it into an email address. Every address you own by November 20 is someone you reach for free on Black Friday, while competitors pay +84%.

The setup

1. Audience: Instagram account engagers from the last 60 days, plus people who messaged your account. Exclude your email list and 30-day buyers.
2. Objective: Click-to-Direct. In the message template, add EARLYBF as a suggested question, so one tap sends it.
3. Creative: 15 seconds. "You asked when. It's the 27th." Product and price. "Tap to message us EARLYBF."
4. Budget: small and front-loaded. Spend most of it before November 20.

The math

Illustrative. A 5,000-person engager pool at a $15 CPM today, three impressions each, costs $225. If 4% message you and half give an email, that's 100 subscribers at $2.25. Buy the same impressions on Black Friday at +84%, and the bill is about $414, for people who may already have bought elsewhere.

The kill rule

My judgment: after $100, if cost per subscriber beats your lead ad by half or more, double the budget and widen to 180 days. If it's worse than your lead ad, cut it.

The watch list

• Completion rate: people who message the keyword and give a valid email.
• Day-three follow-ups: the 7-day window lets you nudge non-completers again.
• First-order rate from these subscribers by Cyber Monday.

The tool

Omnisend's Instagram integration handles capture on your organic posts. Social Capture automatically DMs anyone who comments or messages your keyword and asks for their email. Offer a discount to give them a reason to subscribe. Their email goes straight into your Omnisend list, ready for a welcome series. It's on all paid plans. 

New to Omnisend? 150,000+ brands use it, and migration is free and takes up to five business days. You can get started for free here.

Before you log off

Build the audience tonight. Every day you wait costs you more.

Together with AirOps

Could Your Reporting Get the Wrong Channel Cut?

AI search could influence a buyer long before a sale shows up in your reports. If that influence goes uncredited, you could cut spending on a channel that’s helping customers choose you.

On November 20 at 2 PM ET, get inside the measurement work with Google Meridian creator Hitesh Wadhwani, Paramark CEO Pranav Piyush, and AirOps’ COO Matt Hammel.

They’ll break down the blind spots that could be steering your spend:

• Understand where AI search attribution falls short before treating low tracked results as a reason to cut.
• Learn the three requirements for credible measurement so you can spot what your provider’s reporting is missing.
• Explore how AI search fits into existing marketing mix models alongside the channels competing for your budget.

Take the gaps in your reporting back to your team before they become cuts in your budget.

Can't attend the session live? Register anyway, and you’ll get the recordings within 24 hours.

⚡Creative strategy should build on existing customer signals

This framework argues that effective creative development starts with research rather than assumptions. Combining ad performance, customer reviews, competitor insights, and social conversations helps identify promising audiences, messages, and creative angles before production begins.

Why it works: Customer language and recurring pain points reveal motivations that generic personas often miss. Pairing these insights with proven hooks, formats, and past campaign results creates more informed creative briefs and reduces unnecessary experimentation.

Where it needs balance: Strong research doesn't guarantee winning ads. Competitor creatives, viral content, and customer comments may not represent broader purchasing behavior. Combining individually successful elements can also produce weak results, so every new concept still needs testing against actual conversion and profitability data.

🎥 Reel of the Day

What Works:

1. The Weirdness Is the Hook - “Putting dashi into coffee sounds ridiculous” immediately challenges expectations. The unusual combination of Japanese broth and espresso creates curiosity, making viewers want to see whether it actually works.

2. The Pour Becomes the Performance - Close-up shots of milk pouring over bonito flakes, precise preparation, and the finished drink turn an unfamiliar recipe into a visually satisfying experience worth watching.

3. Two Niche Audiences, One Collaboration - Partnering with Superwow Coffee connects experimental coffee enthusiasts with people interested in Japanese-inspired flavors. The collaboration gives both audiences a fresh reason to discover the brands.

Introduce an unexpected product combination, make its preparation visually irresistible, and connect the curiosity to a limited-time experience that gives viewers a reason to act.

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Thanks for reading this edition! Keep pushing boundaries, testing ideas, and staying inspired. See you in the next edition with more ways to ignite your marketing success. 🥰